UK Diplomats Cautioned Against Military Action to Overthrow Zimbabwe's Leader

Recently released documents reveal that the Foreign Office advised against British military action to overthrow the former Zimbabwean president, the long-serving leader, in 2004, advising it was not considered a "serious option".

Policy Papers Reveal Deliberations on Handling a "Depressingly Healthy" Dictator

Internal documents from the then Prime Minister's government indicate officials weighed up options on how best to deal with the "depressingly healthy" 80-year-old leader, who declined to leave office as the country descended into violence and economic chaos.

Faced with Mugabe's Zanu-PF party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK participated in a US-led coalition to oust Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, No 10 asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to develop potential options.

Isolation Strategy Deemed Not Working

Officials agreed that the UK's strategy to isolate Mugabe and forging an international agreement for change was not working, having failed to secure support from influential African states, notably the then South African president, Thabo Mbeki.

Courses considered in the files included:

• "Seek to remove Mugabe by force";
• "Implement tougher UK measures" such as freezing assets and shuttering the UK embassy; or
• "Re-open dialogue", the option supported by the then departing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"We know from Afghanistan, Iraq and Yugoslavia that altering a government and/or its bad policies is exceedingly difficult from the outside."

The FCO paper rejected military action as not a "serious option," adding that "The only candidate for leading such a armed intervention is the UK. No other country (even the US) would be prepared to do so".

Cautionary Notes of Heavy Casualties and Jurisdictional Barriers

It cautioned that military intervention would result in significant losses and have "considerable implications" for British people in Zimbabwe.

"Barring a severe human and political catastrophe – resulting in widespread bloodshed, large-scale refugee flows, and regional instability – we judge that no African state would agree to any efforts to remove Mugabe by force."

The paper continues: "We also believe that any other international ally (including the US) would sanction or participate in military intervention. And there would be no jurisdictional basis for doing so, without an approving Security Council Resolution, which we would not get."

Long-Term Strategy Recommended

Blair's foreign policy adviser, a senior official, advised Blair that Zimbabwe "will be a real spoiler" to his plan to use the UK's presidency of the G8 to make 2005 "a pivotal year for Africa". Lee concluded that as military action had been ruled out, "it is likely necessary that we must play the longer game" and re-open talks with Mugabe.

Blair seemed to concur, noting: "We must devise a way of exposing the falsehoods and misconduct of Mugabe and Zanu-PF up to this election and then subsequently, we could try to re-engage on the basis of a clear understanding."

The departing ambassador, in his valedictory telegram, had recommended cautious renewed contact with Mugabe, though he understood the Prime Minister "might shudder at the thought given all that Mugabe has said and done".

Robert Mugabe was ultimately removed in a 2017 coup, aged 93. Previous claims that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressurise the South African president into joining a military coalition to overthrow Mugabe were strongly denied by the former UK premier.