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Residents of the Big Apple will learn the identity of their next mayor this election day, in a contest that will decide who runs and protects the nation's most populous metropolis at a moment when the former president has vowed to send military troops to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has matched two very different Democratic figures against one another. The contest has become an acrimonious showdown, laced with accusations of racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two main candidates that could have significant consequences for how the party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the young progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has brought global notice. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the former New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the support of wealthy contributors and corporations.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who defeated his opponent in the party primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a agenda of affordability and promised to freeze rent for about 2 million city residents, has outpaced his rival by significant margins across all surveys conducted in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's election to lose.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who resigned as governor in recent years amid accusations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has criticized his opponent's objectives as unachievable, and in recent days chuckled along as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was widely condemned as bigoted after posting an AI-generated ad that included a slew of racial caricatures and showed his opponent freeing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby end to an election that could be critical to the path that the Democratic party, floundering in its response to Trump's power moves, adopts in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

Should Mamdani wins convincingly, the party establishment who have declined to support his bid will be compelled to address a message that has appealed to voters' anger at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be hard for the Senate leader and the House leader not to embrace at least some of the candidate's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the fresh face has generated an enthusiasm within the party perhaps not seen since Bernie Sanders ran for president in 2016.

However, if the former governor, who had been expected to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, achieve a remarkable comeback victory, it could cement the party's existing approach of considered, uninspiring opposition – a strategy that has infuriated the party base. A NYC rejection of the progressive's progressive, positive message could persuade party leaders that the best plan is to remain in the center – even as polls show the current iteration of the Democratic party is widely disliked across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in New York appear to favor the progressive agenda. Polls show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident during the race. The candidate's engaging content on social media, his optimistic vision for New York and his readiness to actually get out and meet people in the metropolis has attracted an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

However, Cuomo, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the stakes stacked against him, the ex-leader has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might resonate, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on targeting Mamdani directly. He has labelled his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an "radical", and appeared on conservative media for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo claimed the city “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It reached a nadir recently, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy echoes much of what Trump, who has sent the military reserves to the capital and threatened to take similar action to New York, has said about the progressive, and maybe that is expected. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to the Republican in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to elect Cuomo into office, as other powerful voices have urged Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the contest.

Political Histories

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should never have come to this. When the assemblyman, one of 150 New York state assembly members, launched his mayoral bid in October 2024, not many had heard of him, and in truth, few even paid attention.

The former governor, by comparison, eased his way into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who seemingly held every edge. The classic establishment figure, he had wed a Kennedy and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as the state's leader in over a decade ago, 17 years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a brighter outlook of the city's direction than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, the candidate has faced some challenges in recent days, after footage emerged suggesting him implying the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the recording, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in recent years. The progressive, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the nation is committing genocide in Gaza, suggested he was criticizing cooperative programs between the NYPD and IDF.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, the candidate appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

The progressive responded to the independent's 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a family member advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, he said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd