Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from enemy soil, a ability afforded by current data. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been deployed to engage hostile guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably delivered by Western nations. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: seven people killed, devastation and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, no doubt, continue.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington functions according to a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government presumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the status quo will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.
