For ten years, Europe has been locked in a perpetual state of crisis over migration. While the original meaning of crisis signifies a temporary disruption from the norm, since 2015 it has transformed into an enduring feature of the European political landscape. That pivotal year, around one million individuals escaped war and persecution to seek safety in Europe. In the years that followed, the topic of migration has been so completely politicised that it is now hard to recall a period when it was not described as an overwhelming emergency.
This notion of a constant emergency does not reflect a reality where Europe is genuinely incapable of handling new arrivals. Instead, it highlights the simple fact that many parties profit from creating a constant feeling of crisis.
These crisis narratives sustain a profitable system of fear and have driven profound changes to Europe's border architecture and asylum rules. The continent's border security industry is flourishing, with key beneficiaries including the EU's border agency, whose funding has skyrocketed from a modest sum in 2014 to well over one billion euros today—despite repeated accusations of complicity with human rights abuses. Throughout Europe, private defence and security firms have secured lucrative contracts that have further hardened the region's frontiers.
The Rise of the Hard Right and the Politics of Copycat
Vowing that the events of 2015 will not be duplicated, conservative and far-right political forces are on the rise across Europe, seemingly determined to whipping up anti-migrant sentiment and normalising racist conspiracy theories. The racist right has seized its opportunity. However, the fact that Europe has grown more unwelcoming for migrants and racialised minorities is in large part due to the dangerous cynicism of mainstream parties that seek to outflank the hard right at its own game.
Germany serves as a clear example. Exploiting the 2015 "migration wave", the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) first won seats in the federal parliament in 2017. Since then, as head of the opposition and later as chancellor, the CDU's Friedrich Merz has veered hard to the right. Championing an aggressive anti-migration agenda, he has made statements seen by many as racist, including a recent suggestion that large-scale deportations were needed to resolve a "problem in the cityscape". This strategy of adopting rival rhetoric has had the opposite effect, with the AfD's poll numbers rising dramatically to now rival Merz's own party.
In the UK, the current Labour government confronts a similar fate. Under immense pressure from the hard-right Reform UK party, it has announced what it calls "the toughest asylum reforms in modern times". These severe plans would make refugee status temporary, reduce support, tear apart families, and leave many in a state of limbo for years. This strategy does not contain forces on the right flank; it strengthens them. Reform UK praised the announcement, while far-right activists celebrated a supposed shattering of the acceptable discourse.
A Spiral of Cruelty and an Authoritarian Horizon
For the far right across Europe, the "gift" of migration crises keeps giving. A vital lesson must be reiterated: when you adopt a politics of cruelty to outbid those whose whole platform is founded on cruelty, defeat is assured. Even if governments succeed in implementing "tough" policies or lower asylum numbers, the far right will simply identify other minority groups to target, dehumanise, and blame.
This aggression shows no signs of abating. Turning vast regions like the Sahara and the Mediterranean into areas of peril is not enough for those who view their struggle as a cultural war, steeped in racial mythology and "repatriation" fantasies that ultimately target Europe's own minority citizens.
The ideology of the far right are gaining momentum, building connections globally and allowing migration to be used as a vehicle for democratic erosion. Internationally, influential voices are adopting this rhetoric, with recent policy papers from a former U.S. administration calling to end the "age of large-scale movement" and to resist Europe's "civilizational erasure". Such statements are hailed as victories by far-right parties within Europe.
The Coming Decade: Fortification or Pushback?
What, then, does the future hold for fortress Europe? The EU's current trajectory appears clear. With the new EU migration agreement taking full effect in 2026, another landmark in securitisation will be reached. Rather than challenging narratives of perpetual crisis, the pact effectively turns crisis into standard policy. It will enable member states to speed up border processes, extend detention, and limit asylum rights during broadly stated "emergency circumstances" of mass arrival. Critics argue these measures are so broad that they risk becoming normalised, indefinitely eroding rights across the continent.
In a world with many reasons for forced displacement—from war and genocide to capitalist extraction and environmental collapse—ramped-up border security, mass deportations, and a generalised politics of cruelty will never "solve" migration. What they accomplish is the decay of democratic norms, deeper social rifts, and increased racist hostility.
Given that migration has become the central issue of the current authoritarian turn, it is exactly around migration that opposition must form. How we will remember the decade from 2026 to 2035 is, ultimately, our collective choice. Performing rescue operations in the Mediterranean, blocking immigration raids and deportation flights, and reclaiming cities as spaces of plurality and solidarity—these are all vitally important actions that protect our fellow human beings and confront the anti-democratic movements expanding around us.
