The Palestinian faction is likely to demand substantial amendments to the US administration's peace plan for Gaza however could eventually agree to the framework in the coming days as a foundation for renewed talks, as per analysts and sources familiar with the group.
The US President's Time Limit and Proposal Outline
Trump set a deadline of “a few days” from this week for Hamas to respond to his 20-point proposal, which aims to conclude the two-year conflict in Gaza and enable an seemingly open-ended international administration of the devastated region, or confront serious consequences.
Gaza-based analyst Mkhaimar Abusada remarked that Hamas now confronts a choice between “the bad and the worst.” He added, “Should they refuse Trump's plan, as Trump has made clear, that will not be good and will permit Israeli forces to do whatever it takes to end the conflict. They will say ‘yes, but we require this and that’.”
The Group's Sticking Points
A senior fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations noted that it would be very difficult for Hamas to accept the terms unconditionally. “This is reasonable. The proposal lacks details. Yet any response short of total and final acceptance will be exploited by the group by Israel, the Trump administration, and perhaps the Europeans,” he explained.
Israel's prime minister has accepted the Trump plan, which incorporated several of the country's principal requirements and was formulated without consulting Hamas.
Netanyahu, who is wanted for suspected war crimes by the international criminal court from the military campaign in Gaza, has declared that the country would “complete its mission” if Hamas rejected the plan or slowed its execution. Earlier this year, Israeli forces ended a two-month ceasefire, declining to move to a planned next stage that could have definitively ended hostilities.
Internal Disagreements and External Pressure
Hamas leaders are split among Turkey, Qatar, and the Gaza Strip, which complicates deliberations on the faction's reply. Turkey and Qatar are urging the group to compromise.
One obstacle is the plan's requirement that Hamas surrender weapons, a insider close to the organization revealed. The surrender of arms would be extremely hard for the militants to accept, particularly without any political process or meaningful advancement toward a Palestinian state.
“There exist varying viewpoints inside the movement. The membership in Qatar tend to be more pragmatic, especially compared to the armed wing in Gaza. There is an clear need to secure the support of the armed faction, and the rank and file fighters,” Lovatt said.
War Context and Humanitarian Toll
The war were sparked by the Hamas raid into Israeli territory that killed over a thousand individuals, mostly non-combatants. Approximately 250 were taken hostage, of whom forty-eight are still in Gaza, though less than 50% are surviving.
Over sixty-six thousand individuals, largely non-combatants, have been fatally injured by Israel's offensive in the region, much of the territory reduced to ruins, and most of the 2.3 million residents forced from their homes repeatedly.
Trump's Proposal Details
Trump's proposal will require the fighters to release the remaining Israeli hostages within three days of a ceasefire coming into effect, the phased pullback of IDF troops to a buffer zone along the edge, and a surge of relief supplies. It also stipulates Israel to free over 1,000 Palestinian prisoners, many imprisoned for life, which Hamas could portray as a significant win.
Another issue for Hamas is the unclear assurance of Israeli withdrawals, though the explicit mention that there will be no takeover or control of the territory by Israel was viewed positively by an insider close to the group.
Hamas's Present Situation and Capabilities
Experts say that divisions within Hamas are often exaggerated.
“It is unlikely there is a genuine division among Gaza, the West Bank, and the outside leadership. They all agree on opposing the disarmament because the armed struggle is a core tenet in their identity and ethos,” said Michael Milshtein.
Hamas has experienced very significant casualties in the war. Thousands of militants have been eliminated, along with nearly every senior military leaders. A report by an independent monitor found that at least forty commanders and important figures in Hamas's military wing had been targeted by Israeli airstrikes since March. Their deaths have resulted in only a single senior commander from Hamas's pre-7 October command structure remaining active, the group said.
However Hamas continues insurgent activities and upholds elements of administration in the absence of any replacement. Aid workers in Gaza said that the faction still had a strong presence in the urban center, the “refugee areas” farther south, and the coastal zone of al-Mawasi.
Hamas, which was founded in the late 1980s, has recruited thousands of fresh recruits who, though inexperienced and lacking gear, can inflict casualties on Israeli forces.
Milshtein said that, as per defense officials, 90% of Hamas commanders had been killed, ninety-seven percent of its rockets destroyed or launched, but only 40% of the faction's extensive tunnel network had been eliminated. “Hamas have adjusted to the new conditions. They remain active in zones where the [Israeli military] has stated Hamas is totally defeated, but you can’t totally erase them. They have transformed and they persist,” Milshtein concluded.
Within Hamas Opposition to the Plan
Some within Hamas are committed to rejecting the Trump plan completely.
“There is a trend from the armed branch, particularly the younger fighters, which wants to continue the struggle,” the analyst said. “They believe is that the Israeli government is facing challenges: the mobilization of part-time soldiers is a huge burden, elections are due within a year, there is growing global and local criticism … So, for this faction, it’s simply a matter of who will endure longer.”
