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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward script. It often acts as a form of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your team in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who orchestrated the biggest turnaround receives the award. In reality, it creates an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or just the greatest surprise.

Yet the current race is profoundly different. The group of candidates is exceptionally deep. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent conference winners falling away and longtime underperformers rising together. In an typical season, a coach leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in this chaotic and entertaining year, he's competing with several other outstanding coaches.

This is how the hypothetical vote could look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been afforded the chance to showcase his otherworldly talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system rather than freelancing. It is an attack built entirely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide-open targets all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been available, he's been capable to conjure magic out of nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Virtually each decision – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the organization with the kind of hype he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a typical year, Johnson would be the runaway choice. But this is not a typical campaign!

The area where his candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are famously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term success. However he falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has mastered the intangibles stuff, which was not a certainty after his initial public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching mix of youth and veteran savvy, Coen bet on first-timers. From the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an initial strong start, there was a chance that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year setback had the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him just one place ahead of peers.

Still