Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has has something to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
